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ENERGY

sector Overview:

In January 2008, the price of oil product topped $100 a barrel for the first time. As this was almost five times more than it was in 2002, and with massively rising demand from the US, China and India taking place, the natural assumption was that this is due to the paucity of supply. This, however, is not necessarily the case. There is a lot of oil left, but most of this is not ‘easy oil.’ For one thing, the cost of extracting oil is increasing steadily. New oil discoveries tend to be found in inaccessible spots or in more unwieldy forms which adds to the cost. This doesn’t mean that oil has run out. Canada’s tarsands contain almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia. However it does mean that accessing these reserves in an economically and environentally acceptable manner is a far greater challenge than in the past. At the same time, many oil companies are finding it more and more difficult to find new reserves. In 2007, for the first time in 14 years, Exxon, the world’s largest energy firm, failed to find as much new reserves as it had used during the year.


?While wind, wave and solar attract much media attention, for now the economics of scale are not fully viable and these are more likely to be part of the longer term energy solution. In the meantime, as the pressure to migrate to clean or renewable energy sources is mounting, several countries from Finland to China and even the oil-rich UAE are making new investments in nuclear facilities, and new players such as ADM and Cargill have been pushing the bio-energy agenda at a global scale.

Across the sector, reducing CO2 emissions continues to influence policy. As the impact of climate change becomes more evident and general public awareness has increased, energy companies have been increasingly keen to display their green credentials and demonstrate they are actively pursuing and investing in renewable energy sources. The resulting financial incentives and markets for carbon will increasingly enable economic viable solutions around renewable energy production. That said, for now, the basics of the business are still largely dominated by the up-stream activities of oil and gas exploration and production and the down-stream activities of refining, distribution and marketing. Yes, there are new players in the sector – including a plethora of technology-based start-ups as well as the ex-state oil and gas companies – but the real power still resides with the ‘majors’ that continue to dominate the sector.

ONES WE ARE WATCHING

 

GE
?With its ecomagination programme now in full sway, GE has been changing assumptions across much of its portfolio from jet engines through to medical systems. In the GE Energy business, it has demonstrated foresight and investment in new technologies across the space from wind and solar through to nuclear. Its photovoltaic systems are selling well, GE has installed over 8000 wind turbines and its ESBWR reactors are winning orders as the world gears up for new nuclear. At the same time, GE’s recognised service business model expertise will certainly be having significant impact here as it has already done elsewhere.

BP
?Although this previous Innovation Leader has had operational problems recently, its investments in innovation and new technologies have not abated. It has been busy cleaning up its oil and gas products, and, already a long time leader in the solar energy arena, BP has recently been making significant investments across the wider renewables area. Like Shell it is investing in next generation bio-fuels and has made interesting bets for the future in India and, most recently, with Synthetic Genomics where the potential for subsurface microbial processes are being explored.

 

 

 

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